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National Situation Update: Friday, October 10, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast:  Flooding along several river basins of the Northeast are receding but many of these rivers will remain above flood stage well into the holiday weekend. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of Upstate New York and New England but rainfall will be spotty. Thunderstorms forecasted for northern New York Saturday night and to northern New England Sunday. A few showers are likely on Sunday over southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic and continue for the holiday..

South:  Rain is possible in parts of southern and southeastern Texas. Otherwise, look for only isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast area, especially for Sunday and beyond. The Florida Peninsula will see typical afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms this weekend. Thunderstorms may increase across parts of Tennessee and North Carolina on Tuesday. 

Midwest:  Thunderstorms could turn severe late in the day in the northern Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will extend from parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan to the eastern Ohio Valley. Parts of the Great Lakes region may see some scattered severe thunderstorms on Saturday. By Sunday, we may see a few more thunderstorms in the northern and central plains on eastward to just north of the Ohio River.

West:  Portions of the northern Rockies, and sections of the Great Basin, may see an increase in thunderstorm activity this weekend. Widely scattered thunderstorms will pop each day through Tuesday from parts of the Great Basin, through the Rockies, to the high Plains. Many fires continue to burn and additional lightning strikes and gusty winds will only add to the danger.  (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Region III Earthquake and Flooding

Pennsylvania
While slight flooding still exists throughout Central PA , recovery workers are expecting better weather conditions over the next few days, according the Harrisburg NWS. The Commonwealth reported 18 fatalities yesterday. This is unconfirmed by the Pennsylvania Public Health Dept.

20 Pennsylvania Counties have declared local emergencies. PDA teams have been deployed to conduct Individual Assistance (IA) assessments. Six (6) possible JFO sites are being evaluated in Harrisburg . The FEMA Logistics staff have deployed to Harrisburg , PA to identify space for a JFO.

According to Commonwealth Emergency officials, there are currently 150,000 residences without electricity. There are nearly 50,000 in the Harrisburg-area without water and will be without water for at least 3-5 days when the water treatment plant will come back on line. The state has water distribution sites currently set up to assist residents. Meanwhile post-earthquake flooding caused over 500 water rescues to be performed, mostly by the National Guard, but also by the US Coast Guard.

Red Cross reports 57 shelters open populated with approximately 29,160 people. 2,050 National Guard were activated with the main concentration in south-central section of the state. The Willow Grove staging area is receiving commodities for 50,000 people for three days. Truckloads of cots and and blankets are enroute from Ft. Pickett , VA for staging at Willow Grove . Truckloads of water and MREs will also be leaving Edison , NJ for staging at Willow Grove , PA. Trucks should start arriving there between 5:00 to 5:30 pm on Friday October 10th. Truckloads of ice and an empty reef have been ordered from AmeriCold for staging at Willow Grove .

Logistics is working with Commonwealth staff on the identification of Points of Distribution Sites (PODS).

Communications have improved in the past 24 hours and two more bridges have been declared safe between York and Lancaster counties. Governor Rendell's request letter for an expedited major disaster declaration was received and approved for 34 counties.

Maryland
Officials in Montgomery County lifted the evacuation order keeping people from their homes near Lake Needwood Thursday evening. More than 2,200 people were evacuated from the area because officials were concerned about residents who live downstream of the dam. The evacuation order was lifted at 10 p.m. after experts determined it was safe for residents to return to their houses. The water level has dropped from 21 feet to 17 feet and continues to recede at a rate of two (2) inches per hour.
IA PDAs have been completed for currently requested counties.  PA PDAs are ongoing in Dorchester County.
There are no outstanding requests for Federal Assistance.

Delaware
Additional flooding is a concern in New Castle County as the Delaware River flood wave moves downstream. 

IA and PA PDAs are ongoing in Sussex County.  PDA was completed for Delaware Department of Transportation. An estimated $1.3 million dollars in damages is anticipated. PDAs will continue for the county and towns, and should be completed no later than Saturday.

There are no outstanding requests for Federal Assistance(FEMA Region III, PEMAEOC, media reports)

Region II Flooding

New York
Rivers are beginning to crest in some areas but are expected to remain above flood stage through Saturday and possibly Sunday. Road and bridge closing lists continue to grow in both states as rivers are still rising in many areas.

Power is being cut by utilities in many areas for responder safety. Number of customers affected continues to change. NICC is reporting about 7,500 customers without electric service

Casualties:  two (2) confirmed dead and one (1) missing and presumed dead

New York reports the cities of Binghamton, Johnson City, Port Jervis and the town of Andes have shut down their sewage systems due to flooding.  Over 5,000 customers are without water services and others are under boil water advisory.

New Jersey
State Offices remained closed October 10, 2008 to all but essential staff.

List of road closures is frequently changing, Route 29 in the Trenton area being the most impacted.

A total of 1,759 homes were evacuated with a population of 6,170 people, most of whom are staying with friends and family.

Rivers have begun to crest. The Delaware River at Port Jervis dropped below flood stage at 2:00 p.m. EDT October 10, 2008. The Lower Delaware remains above flood stage with portions expected to not recede until at least Saturday.

Electric and gas service is being cut by utility companies to flooded areas for safety. Number of customers affected continues to change.

FEMA received requests from Governors of both NY and NJ for PDAs to begin on October 13, 2008. (FEMA Region II, NYEOC, media reports)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic:  A large tropical wave is over the E Caribbean Sea moving west 15-20 knots. This wave is interacting with a large upper-level trough, producing disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend from the eastern Caribbean Sea, across the Lesser Antilles, and northward into the Atlantic for a few hundred miles. These shower and thunderstorm activity should spread across portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola for the rest of tonight and Friday. Upper-level winds remain strong enough to prohibit any development of this system into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. The San Juan Doppler radar continues to show showers with embedded thunderstorms moving across these islands under a southeast wind flow. Brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds, especially over higher elevations, will be possible. There is a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:  No tropical storm activity.
Eastern Pacific: No tropical storm activity.
Western Pacific: No tropical storm activity.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

The magnitude 4.3 quake struck California about 8:28 p.m. EDT Thursday, and was centered about six miles southwest of the Salton Sea, according to a preliminary report by the U.S. Geological Survey. A magnitude 3.2 aftershock struck about two minutes later. The 376 square-mile Salton Sea, about 75 miles northeast of San Diego, is California's largest lake.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, NWS, West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Current Situation:  Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 262 new fires reported. Twenty new large fires were reported, eight in the Northern California Area, five in the Northwest Area, four in the Western Great Basin Area and one each in the Rocky Mountain, Southern and Southern California Areas. Fourteen large fires were contained, three each in the Western Great Basin, Northern California and the Southwest Areas, two in the Rocky Mountain Area and one each in the Southern California, Eastern Great Basin and Southern Areas.
Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota and Utah.    (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)